"I cannot conceive that there are any benefits in Australia being at war with China unless the circumstances were so serious as to make the cost in lives and treasury worthwhile. Tensions continue to simmer . Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) analyst Dr Malcolm Davis disagrees. China is largely trying to take territorial control, which makes east Asia a likely location for trouble. "The Kadena air base is 450 nautical miles away from Taiwan and threatened by Chinese surface-to-surface missiles. At the last G20 foreign ministers' meeting, in Bali last summer, Lavrov walked out amid condemnations of Russia's war and its impact on global food and energy costs. If Australians are hearing the 'beating drums' of war, as Minister Mike Pezzullo put it, is it because Scott Morrison's Coalition government thinks banging on about China will be a winning . China would seek to pluck out the eyes and ears of the US and allies to make them blind on the battlefield, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. At home, a concerted effort must be made to find ways to better protect U.S. traditional and social media against Chinese disinformation. Chinese strategists see these passages as crucial to their ability to deploy forces beyond the first island chain, analyst Ben Lowsen told The Diplomat. "One can imagine the sociological fracture in Australia with funerals, commemorations, attacks on Australians of Chinese descent, the curtailing of any progressive economic reconstruction agenda for Australia.". "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. How this young Indigenous artist is taking inspiration from anime and manga to celebrate his own culture, NBA star Ja Morant suspended, 'takes full responsibility' for nightclub gun video, Andrew Tate shuts down cancer rumors, is accused of recruiting politicians to his cause, 'If carers are going to survive, they need this', says resident pioneering dementia respite care centre. March 11, 2021 Ryan Morgan Last fall, the U.S. Air Force played out a war scenario with China, in which China begins its attack by deploying a biological weapon throughout the Indo-Pacific region. "The bases in South Korea and Japan may not be available, and Guam may also be unavailable. The number of inhabitants is 1,444,390,177. Its a problem long recognised by defence analysts and planners. There are always a few possibilities that the right thing to do is to go to war irrespective of the expectation that we could 'win' whatever that means. To walk countries away from war we have concluded that statesmanship finds more purchase on risk aversion than on hawkishness. The map below, compiled from data provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is the most accurate nuclear attack map and fallout demonstration available for 2023: (Image courtesy of FEMA and Halcyon Maps) The fallout would rapidly spread, turning targeted cities into whole affected regions. How Australia could be forced to go to WAR as tensions between China The vision is not a new one: White knights charging forth, flags flying, to save friends from a bellowing dragon. The People's Liberation Army is capable of "substantially subduing" the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. Russian Struggles in Ukraine Show US Special Operators' Logistics Needs "Today we can see change for the worse all over the globe. That leaves its navy as its primary fighting force. "For Australia the conflict would be devastating whether we joined the fighting or not. "If we joined the fight, or allowed US forces involved to operate from bases here, then there would be a clear chance that Australia would face direct attack from Chinese long-range forces. I think China now has adequate forces, including air, missile, electronic warfare, spec ops, naval, undersea and nuclear, to likely prevail in the first phase and perhaps in subsequent phases too.. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. Taiwan is much closer to China than the United States. "Unlike the Taliban, China has an air force. China would have to launch an amphibious invasion, deploying troops along its beaches as the first step in a march towards the capital Taipei. The Australian government has moved to confront Beijing over allegations of human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian has joined a chorus of. Spain is a notable exception, however, with 48% believing Russia to have the advantage currently, compared to 32% who feel neither side has the upper hand and 6% who think Ukraine is winning. [A war is] something that you and I may well have to confront in the next five to 10 years, he said. And Taiwan sitting neatly between the two offers that opportunity. Part 2. "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. Mr. Xi, who likes to say that the East is rising while the West is declining, evidently feels that Americas greatest weakness is on its home front. "Practically this limits the sinews of war available to us: they would be insufficient. And that would leave Australias critical fuel supply links to Singapore desperately exposed. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? "The question requires urgent, high-profile debate in parliament and among the wider public. "Major combat against the United States means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. "At the time what I could see was the possibility that our intelligence had uncovered the spectre of WMD in Iraq. "A big unknown is whether Japan would grant expanded rights to the US to use bases located on its territory, without itself joining the combat directly unless its territory is attacked. But Chinas been preparing for this for decades. There are less quantifiable aspects as well. "I worry when politicians start to think it is acceptable to use the media to make threats about war. The feud over the reigns of global influence is playing out in Southeast Asia. americanmilitarynews.com - Radio Free Asia 18h. "As Carl von Clausewitz noted [in his book On War], defence is the stronger form of war. The US has launched 615 satellites into space in the last three years, compared to 168 by China, according to Lowy. Principles matter, he writes. Beyond out-producing the US Navy in the number of warships at a rate of four to one, the PLA Strategic Rocket Force has put US aircraft carriers at risk with the fielding of the DF-21D and DF-26 anti-carrier ballistic missiles, Mr Fanell said. The most probable spark is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. These flew out of Japan and down the east coast of Taiwan to operate near the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group and the Chinese Liaoning. "That is one reason to expect a stalemate.". Credit:AP. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct simultaneous high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan, and other US allies and partners. "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own. "It may be argued that ANZUS would inevitably push Australia to war but we should not be lazy in coming [to] that conclusion. "Firepower strikes described above would be accompanied by cyber operations to ensure information is blocked as well. If the US went to war with China, who would win? Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war To use the words of one leading military analyst, Australia could find itself "sleepwalking" into a war with China. Some wouldn't survive. Wherever they start, they finish only when one side decides to give up. No other country on the planet, save New Zealand, is better placed from a purely defensive perspective. The US will pursue the following war aims: 1. "Nor can it rely on the US for resupply by sea once a conflict begins. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwans fate will be resolved. He spent the bulk. Mr. Xi has championed . "When I was born in 1945 the world population stood at about 2.7 billion people. I suspect the US under the current president, Joe Biden, despite his various ambiguous statements, will avoid a direct confrontation with China. This means any idea of sustained operations within the Pacific-spanning reach of Chinas ballistic and cruise missiles is likely optimistic. One real threat mistaken for a bluff. Admiral Chris Barrie says that with all the "overblown rhetoric" about the possibility of war against China he thinks there is a danger of forgetting that war should only ever be taken as the last means of resolving insurmountable differences between nation states. All times AEDT (GMT +11). "Australia has always had a fascination about China, going well back in our history to pre-federation days. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? Russia-Ukraine war: Why does China suddenly seem to want to broker Modern warships carry only a limited number of weapons. "The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land, he says. But unlike Ukraine, where Europe is largely united in condemning Russia, Asia will not be united in condemning China.". What determines victory, loss or stalemate between the US and China is likely to be determined by the murky calculus of how much risk and how much pain and loss both sides could endure. "There would thus bea high chance that involvement in a war with China would swiftly exceed the toll in casualties suffered in Vietnam and Korea.". Steaming at 25 knots, an aircraft carrier in Pearl Harbour would take about a week to reach Taiwan. And each one would require a heavy investment of equipment and lives to neutralise if they could be reached in the first place. They would be forced to operate as part of a much greater allied unit. But leaders in Washington also need to avoid stumbling carelessly into a war with China because it would be unlike anything ever faced by Americans. "Unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into conflict, and their families, a war with China will have an impact on all Australians economically, financially, and personally. We hope that Australia will fully understand the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, adhere to our One China principle, be cautious in its words and actions, refrain from sending any wrong signals to the secessionist forces of Taiwan independence, a foreign ministry spokesperson said. Now it is China. "Even so, the UN has not been able to avert war. The decision to go to war would not require a public discussion. If Australia sleepwalks into a war with China, as many analysts fear is happening right now, then amid our strategic slumber we should at least ask one question: what would war with China mean for Australia? This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission. US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert says. "Australia's armed forces add very little by way of capability to those of the US. This last outpost of pre-Communist China is an embarrassing thorn in Chairman Xi Jinpings paw. "It would suffer high attrition and its military modernisation and even its one-party Communist rule would be threatened. According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. "It depends. This is what a statesman should do as a risk averse response. This is how we got here and what needs to change, 'Please confirm what Muslim refers to': Why Ali's birthday payment for his nephew was flagged by his bank, Kade was a fit 31-year-old when he died from a heart attack, Sherpa are world famous for their work, which is synonymous with their name. It could take months to restore trade, and emergency rationing of some items would be needed. Jamie Seidel @JamieSeidel 5 min read May 25, 2020 - 11:05AM The United States just lost a battle to save Taiwan from a Chinese invasion and it's not the first time. One year on: European and American attitudes to the war in Ukraine Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. US vs. China: Who Would Win a War in 2030? - The National Interest Who would win in a battle between the U.S. and Australia? If the US went to war with China, who would win? - Nikkei Asia "I do not know whether Defence planners in Canberra would have made such estimates. by Robert Farley L Here's What You Need to. "For its part, Australia is casualty averse, as it should be. Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. Certainly not in the six-to-eight minutes it could take a DF-11 A rocket to cross the 130 kilometre-wide Taiwan Strait to its target. Were working to restore it. Nationwide News Pty Ltd 2023. Taiwan is slightly bigger than the state of Maryland; if you recall how quickly Afghanistan and Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021, you start to realize that the takeover of Taiwan could happen relatively quickly. America would win because the Australians have been weakened for years by the Emus. What War with China Would Look Like, Part 2, will be published on Tuesdayand feature interviews with Allan Behm,former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department, and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. Conflict over the island of Taiwan would be a disastrous experience for the peoples of the region, and its something that we should all work to avoid. Also, we do not have the equivalent of the Chilcott report to illuminate the story. No doubt Australian passions would run high. But there's also bad news ahead. A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would punch a hole in the U.S. and allied chain of defenses in the region, seriously undermining Americas strategic position in the Western Pacific, and would probably cut off U.S. access to world-leading semiconductors and other critical components manufactured in Taiwan. "Because the stakes for both sides are so high, and both are so well armed, it would swiftly escalate into a full-scale regional maritime war," he says. "Ultimately, I do not see how America could inflict enough damage on China to force Beijing to concede over Taiwan, without using nuclear weapons. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.". In this scenario, the US and its allies could respond by conducting airlifts to Taiwan. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. Despite its 1.9 million-strong army, compared to Taiwans cohort of 150,000, the task of taking its island neighbour and holding it is a mammoth military challenge. Looking into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe, and in the wider context NATO, is being drawn towards having to deal with an unacceptable risk of war. "Along with military mobilisation China would need to prepare its citizens and economy for a protracted conflict. The only way we can possibly win such a war is to build a coalition similar to NATO. Defeat the affirmative expeditionary purpose of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). Meia Nouwens from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Beijing was intent on achieving primacy in the waters that surround China. As Australia enjoys all the benefits of a free and open society in a stable and functioning democracy, our principles and values must extend to supporting the survival of Taiwan.. Only a decade ago, the US would have easily dominated the Chinese military in almost any scenario, says Australian National University Professor Stephan Fruehling. The general sense among Western European publics is that the current situation in Ukraine is stalemate, rather than one side having an advantage. Why is Australia warning about war with China? A clue: elections loom Despite decades of warnings, our fuel refineries continue to close. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? The context for decision making would be vitally important weighing the potential costs to the country, domestically and internationally, against the value of that cost for maintaining the ANZUS relationship. John Howard says he has no regrets about the war in Iraq or Australia's involvement in it. "They would probably inflict a lot of damage on Chinese targets, but they would suffer very serious losses in the process. US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert "The question is really about a force-on-force comparison between China and the US. "If they think the blockade is failing, they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted or they might escalate to attacking US forces supporting Taiwan. And that takes the issue of US-China military prowess back to the all-important issue of politics. By the time the Peoples Liberation Army launches its third volley of missiles at the island Beijing considers a breakaway province, the US could be just learning of the attack. They may withhold their offensive cyber power to prevent the US learning their operations. Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. Aukus: Australia's big gamble on the US over China - BBC News These waterways could be used to bottle up Chinese forces. The United States has vital strategic interests at stake. Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. Iraq should have taught us that it makes no sense to support an ally in a war it cant win, and the stakes are much higher this time.. "Notwithstanding their entirely different circumstances, for Australia to support Taiwan against China would be similar to Australia's supporting Catalonia against the Castilians. "Depending on the scenario, here's what is reasonably predictable: "Firepower strike can vary from a limited strike against symbolic targets to extensive strikes against energy and transport infrastructure (power stations and petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL) storage sites, highways, railways, bridges, tunnels) as well as military targets (air defence systems, coastal defence cruise missile launchers, fighter aircraft, artillery). A blockade, he says, would mean 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. I did not see anything like the same discontent in Australia. A rise in tensions between China and Taiwan has raised the prospect of a world war in which Australia will be embroiled.. A Chinese invasion of the island is inevitable within five or six years . The Pentagon views China as the "pacing threat," Gen. John "Mike" Murray, head of Army Futures Command, said March 17 during remarks at the Association of the United States Army's virtual Global Force Next conference. But will it be safer for women? But all the US planes cannot be dispatched to Chinas coastline. "But it is an entirely different story with China. From Taiwan, the PLA could also pivot south, effectively enveloping the Philippines and giving Beijing easier access to the resource-rich Benham Rise, Dr Davis writes. The Chinese defence budget reached $324 billion this year. He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians "economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear". If the United States cannot control the air, it cannot win either at land or at sea. I think its clear that Australia would be better off staying out of it. "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.".